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BayescaseBuild better business cases
Venture Capitalists

Allocate Reserves Where the Odds Pay

Model follow-ons, exits, and dilution with confidence intervals. Bayescase shows probability-weighted outcomes by company and the impact on fund DPI, TVPI, and ownership. Replace spreadsheets and put capital where the risk is priced

Build your first case in 30 minutes • No credit card required

VC Fund Performance - Risk vs Reward

Select startup investments to optimize your fund's return and manage risk exposure

Capital Deployed
$13.0M
Fund ROI
173%
Fund Risk
58%

Select Startups

Venture Capital Challenges

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THE REALITY:
Misaligned Incentives. Unreliable Business Cases.

Case builders and reviewers chase different goals, assumptions stretch, and transparency fades. Decisions hinge on persuasion, not facts.

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THE SOLUTION:
Transparency by Design.

Bayescase makes every input, range, source, and scenario visible in one shared model. Inflated numbers and hidden downsides become obvious. Decisions rest on evidence, not persuasion.

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THE REALITY:
Brittle Models, Hidden Errors

Brittle models hide hard-codes and formula bugs that break with change. Version drift and copy-paste slow updates and erode trust.

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THE SOLUTION:
Robust Models, Clear Logic

Bayescase delivers structured, error-resistant models with transparent logic. AI speeds build and refactor; assumptions and sources stay visible - updates take minutes.

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THE REALITY:
Chasing the Wrong KPIs

Teams optimize what's visible and easy to measure, not the levers that compound outcomes. The real drivers and risks stay hidden.

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THE SOLUTION:
Focus on What Moves the Needle

Bayescase ranks drivers by impact and uncertainty, focusing teams on the few levers that move outcomes and aligning KPIs to value.

Built for Venture Investors

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Goal setting and follow-up

Set probability-based goals, define KPI targets, and track progress against plan to monitor remaining likelihood of hitting objectives on time.

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Portfolio risk balancing

Blend high-risk, high-reward bets with safer plays, optimize expected return versus volatility, and align investments to strategic priorities across portfolios.

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Build business cases fast

Use AI to scaffold calculations, propose realistic assumption ranges, and validate logic, so full business cases come together in minutes.

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Uncertainty and value drivers

Identify the assumptions with the greatest impact on outcomes, ranked by sensitivity, so you focus efforts where they matter most.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I see fund-level analytics?
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Yes. Roll up individual company models to understand fund-level cash flows, aggregate risk, and portfolio-wide returns. This helps guide reserve deployment and fundraising timing.

Can I model dilution and exits?
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Yes. Model different exit scenarios, timing, and dilution from future rounds to understand impact the of investments.

How long does IC prep take with Bayescase?
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With Bayescase, you can generate IC financials in minutes instead of days. The platform ensures transparent assumptions and probabilistic outcomes that facilitate faster, better decisions.

How does Bayescase handle different scenarios?
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You can model multiple scenarios simultaneously. Bayescase shows you the assumptions going in and compares the probabilistic outcomes of all of your options, so stakeholders understand both the plan and the risk.

Can I see the probability of achieving milestones?
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Yes. Set milestones with target dates and success criteria, then track the probability of hitting them as actuals roll in. This keeps your team aligned and gives stakeholders confidence.

Can I compare growth vs. preservation scenarios?
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Yes. Create aggressive, moderate, and conservative scenarios to see the tradeoffs. Bayescase shows you the probability of reaching profitability or the next fundraise under each scenario.

Ready to Allocate Capital with Conviction?

Compare scenarios, model dilution and reserves, and rank deals by probability-adjusted outcomes.

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