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BayescaseBuild better business cases
Product Managers

Turn Budget Debates into Decisive Buy-in

Replace single-point assumptions with ranges, compare scenarios side by side, and see the probability of hitting KPI targets. Bayescase models, tracks actuals, and forecasts P&L and runway impact so leadership can say yes with confidence.

Build your first case in 30 minutes • No credit card required

Expected Monthly Profit Distribution

Select a profit target to see how likely it is and which KPIs you need to hit

$30K
Goal value
50.0%
Probability

Resulting KPIs

KPI2026-012026-022026-032026-04
Conversion Rate		5.7%5.8%5.9%6.0%
Bookings per month		333346360374

Challenges Product Managers Face

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THE REALITY:
Manual Reporting Drains Time

Report generation and slide prep burn hours every cycle. Last-minute changes trigger scrambles to recompile numbers and visuals.

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THE SOLUTION:
Automated, Board-Ready Reports

Bayescase auto-generates audit-ready reports with uncertainty bands and executive summaries. One-click PDFs keep stakeholders informed with minimal effort.

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THE REALITY:
Weak Data, Endless Opinions

Pet projects linger; late-stage kills turn political. Without clear likelihoods and trade-offs, debates get emotional and drag on.

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THE SOLUTION:
Bring Discussions Back to Facts

Bayescase grounds decisions in facts with clear probabilities of hitting targets. See what must be true to scale winners and sunset misses.

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THE REALITY:
Point Estimates Have Low Credibility

Single-point figures signal false precision. Stakeholders question the numbers, challenge assumptions, and discount forecasts and business cases.

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THE SOLUTION:
Quantified Risk, Confident Action

Bayescase quantifies uncertainty with expected values and confidence intervals. Stakeholders see the full range of outcomes and their likelihoods, building trust and enabling confident, data-driven decisions.

Built for Product Managers

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Build business cases fast

Use AI to scaffold calculations, propose realistic assumption ranges, and validate logic, so full business cases come together in minutes.

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Uncertainty and value drivers

Identify the assumptions with the greatest impact on outcomes, ranked by sensitivity, so you focus efforts where they matter most.

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Scenario modeling and comparison

Create what-if scenarios for any decision, compare outcomes side-by-side, and choose the option with the best risk-reward for your project.

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Goal setting and follow-up

Set probability-based goals, define KPI targets, and track progress against plan to monitor remaining likelihood of hitting objectives on time.

Frequently Asked Questions

What makes Bayescase different from spreadsheets?
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Bayescase is purpose-built for probabilistic modeling, with native support for uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations, and scenario comparison. Unlike spreadsheets, it provides structure that prevents errors, AI assistance for faster modeling, and automated board-ready reporting.

Can I compare different roadmap options?
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Yes. Bayescase makes it easy to create multiple scenarios and compare them side-by-side with probability distributions, expected values, and confidence intervals. This helps you make the case for your recommended option.

Do I need to know statistics to use Bayescase?
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No. Bayescase is designed for business users. Our AI helps you define reasonable probability distributions, and the interface guides you through creating models without requiring deep statistical knowledge.

Can I see the probability of achieving milestones?
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Yes. Set milestones with target dates and success criteria, then track the probability of hitting them as actuals roll in. This keeps your team aligned and gives stakeholders confidence.

How long does it take to build a business case?
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With AI assistance, you can build a comprehensive probabilistic business case in 15-30 minutes, compared to days with traditional spreadsheets. The exact time depends on the complexity of your model.

Can I track actuals against my plan?
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Yes. Enter your actuals to see how you're performing against your plan. Bayescase automatically creates a probabilistic forecast and updates the likelihood of hitting your goals as new data comes in.

Ready to Build Defendable Roadmaps?

Turn assumptions into probabilities. Use Bayescase to get stakeholder buy-in and make confident prioritization decisions.

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