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BayescaseBuild better business cases
Founders

Know How Far Your Cash Really Goes - and What to Do Next.

Simulate growth, pricing, CAC, and hiring scenarios in Bayescase to see runway bands and the probability of hitting targets. Set KPIs and keep the team aligned.

Build your first case in 30 minutes • No credit card required

Cash Runway

Select projects and timing and manage your runway risk.

Starting Cash
$800K
Insolvency Risk
0.6%
2026-01
2027-12
Capital Raise
2027-04

Founder Challenges

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THE REALITY:
Chasing the Wrong KPIs

Teams optimize what's visible and easy to measure, not the levers that compound outcomes. The real drivers and risks stay hidden.

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THE SOLUTION:
Focus on What Moves the Needle

Bayescase ranks drivers by impact and uncertainty, focusing teams on the few levers that move outcomes and aligning KPIs to value.

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THE REALITY:
Point Estimates Have Low Credibility

Single-point figures signal false precision. Stakeholders question the numbers, challenge assumptions, and discount forecasts and business cases.

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THE SOLUTION:
Quantified Risk, Confident Action

Bayescase quantifies uncertainty with expected values and confidence intervals. Stakeholders see the full range of outcomes and their likelihoods, building trust and enabling confident, data-driven decisions.

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THE REALITY:
Limited Intuition for Uncertainty

Teams misjudge likelihood and impact, lurching between excessive caution and risky bets. They over- or under-validate, and miss volatility and tail risk

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THE SOLUTION:
Build Probabilistic Intuition

Bayescase makes uncertainty concrete with ranges, distributions, and Monte Carlo. It prioritizes validations by value of information, highlights key drivers and calculates likelihoods of achieving goals based on actuals and probabilistic forecasts.

Built for Founders

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Build business cases fast

Use AI to scaffold calculations, propose realistic assumption ranges, and validate logic, so full business cases come together in minutes.

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Uncertainty and value drivers

Identify the assumptions with the greatest impact on outcomes, ranked by sensitivity, so you focus efforts where they matter most.

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Liquidity and runway planning

Project cash inflows and outflows, stress-test runway under uncertainty, and plan funding milestones before they become critical bottlenecks for operations.

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Ready-made reports and P&L

Auto-generate clear, audit-ready reports with uncertainty bands, executive summaries, and a full P&L, exportable to PDF for stakeholders.

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Building a Startup?

We offer special pricing for early-stage companies and accelerator participants. Get up to 50% off any plan for your first year.

Apply for Startup Pricing

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I model resource constraints?
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Yes. Model shared resources, dependencies, and timing constraints to understand your real capacity and make informed tradeoffs.

Can I model dilution and exits?
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Yes. Model different exit scenarios, timing, and dilution from future rounds to understand impact the of investments.

How does Bayescase help me plan runway?
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Model different hiring, revenue, and burn scenarios to see your runway as a probability distribution instead of a single number. This helps you make informed tradeoffs between growth and survival.

What makes Bayescase different from spreadsheets?
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Bayescase is purpose-built for probabilistic modeling, with native support for uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations, and scenario comparison. Unlike spreadsheets, it provides structure that prevents errors, AI assistance for faster modeling, and automated board-ready reporting.

Is there special pricing for startups?
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Yes. We offer discounted pricing for early-stage startups. Contact us at info.bayescase.com team with your startup details to learn more about eligibility and benefits.

Can I see the probability of achieving milestones?
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Yes. Set milestones with target dates and success criteria, then track the probability of hitting them as actuals roll in. This keeps your team aligned and gives stakeholders confidence.

Do I need to know statistics to use Bayescase?
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No. Bayescase is designed for business users. Our AI helps you define reasonable probability distributions, and the interface guides you through creating models without requiring deep statistical knowledge.

Ready to Plan Without the Drag?

Model scenarios, set milestones, and generate investor-ready reports without pulling time from building.

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