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BayescaseBuild better business cases

Uncertainty Comes With the Business. Don't Hide It - Own It.

Build business cases with probabilities - not single point estimates. Bayescase models scenarios, sets KPI targets, tracks actuals, forecasts and delivers reports with clear odds of hitting your goals.

Build your first case in 30 minutes • No credit card required

Decision Analysis

Drag the slider to compare: NPV only vs. Risk-adjusted view

With Bayescase
Before Bayescase
Insight: Options A and B have similar NPV ($8.2M vs. $8.5M), but Option B has 4.6× higher risk (σ = $5.5M vs. $1.2M).

See how Bayescase helps...

From Problem to Solution

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THE REALITY:
Point Estimates Have Low Credibility

Single-point figures signal false precision. Stakeholders question the numbers, challenge assumptions, and discount forecasts and business cases.

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THE SOLUTION:
Quantified Risk, Confident Action

Bayescase quantifies uncertainty with expected values and confidence intervals. Stakeholders see the full range of outcomes and their likelihoods, building trust and enabling confident, data-driven decisions.

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THE REALITY:
Weak Data, Endless Opinions

Pet projects linger; late-stage kills turn political. Without clear likelihoods and trade-offs, debates get emotional and drag on.

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THE SOLUTION:
Bring Discussions Back to Facts

Bayescase grounds decisions in facts with clear probabilities of hitting targets. See what must be true to scale winners and sunset misses.

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THE REALITY:
Scattered Data, Conflicting Numbers

Data sprawls across spreadsheets, decks, and BI tools. Conflicting numbers get re-keyed, and every cycle burns hours on reconciliation and versioning.

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THE SOLUTION:
One Model, One Source of Truth

Bayescase unifies creation, validation, goals, actuals, forecasts and sharing in one model - one canonical dataset. No re-entry, no reconciliation, no version chaos.

Stop guessing and start thinking in probabilities.

Everything You Need

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Uncertainty and value drivers

Identify the assumptions with the greatest impact on outcomes, ranked by sensitivity, so you focus efforts where they matter most.

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Build business cases fast

Use AI to scaffold calculations, propose realistic assumption ranges, and validate logic, so full business cases come together in minutes.

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Ready-made reports and P&L

Auto-generate clear, audit-ready reports with uncertainty bands, executive summaries, and a full P&L, exportable to PDF for stakeholders.

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Goal setting and follow-up

Set probability-based goals, define KPI targets, and track progress against plan to monitor remaining likelihood of hitting objectives on time.

Your business cases - fast and comprehensive

<30 min
For building a fully probabilistic business case
>10K
Ways your business can turn out - modeled in seconds
One
Source of truth for your plan, goals, actuals and forecasts

Frequently Asked Questions

How does Bayescase handle different scenarios?
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You can model multiple scenarios simultaneously. Bayescase shows you the assumptions going in and compares the probabilistic outcomes of all of your options, so stakeholders understand both the plan and the risk.

What makes Bayescase different from spreadsheets?
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Bayescase is purpose-built for probabilistic modeling, with native support for uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulations, and scenario comparison. Unlike spreadsheets, it provides structure that prevents errors, AI assistance for faster modeling, and automated board-ready reporting.

Do I need to know statistics to use Bayescase?
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No. Bayescase is designed for business users. Our AI helps you define reasonable probability distributions, and the interface guides you through creating models without requiring deep statistical knowledge.

Is my data secure?
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Absolutely. We use enterprise-grade security with encryption at rest and in transit. We comply with industry standards to ensure your data is protected.

Can I see the probability of achieving milestones?
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Yes. Set milestones with target dates and success criteria, then track the probability of hitting them as actuals roll in. This keeps your team aligned and gives stakeholders confidence.

What's included in the free trial?
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The 14-day free trial includes full access to all features: unlimited projects, AI assistance, Monte Carlo simulations, scenario comparison, and board-ready reporting. No credit card required.

Ready to Take Control of the Uncertainty?

Get started today and spend your resources on what truly drives outcomes.

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